Tahoe Backcountry Snow

Backcountry obs.:

Despite the apparent end to winter 6 weeks ahead of schedule, there’s still plenty of great snow to be had at upper elevations if you shift your expectations from powder to corn. In addition to being known for big dumps, Sierra skiing’s number two claim to fame is spring corn, and right now there’s plenty of it ripe for the taking.

Recent cooler weather and dry NE flow has refrozen and tempered the rapid melt of late February. A tour above Incline Village on 3/8 revealed firmly refrozen melt-freeze surfaces from 7400-9600′ on all aspects. At dawn, southerly aspects hosted edgeable, supportable, refrozen corn that began softening in direct sun by 0800. By mid morning, southerly aspects skied fast and creamy: quite frankly some of the best and most enjoyable skiing of the season.

Get it while it’s here. The snow pack is quickly melting away. Below 8000′ patches of dirt and pine needles made for tricky route finding and occasional log hopping. Even at higher elevations, tree wells now show rocks and dirt as the snow slinks away ever more with each passing day.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Well above average temps and dry weather will dominate the coming week (3/9-3/15), further hastening the demise of the 2026 snowpack. Highs look to reach the upper 40s to low-mid 50s above 7000′, especially around midweek and into the coming weekend. Inversions return each night with lows in valleys and depressions dropping to near or just below freezing, while upper elevations remain well above freezing. Upper elevation snow surfaces should refreeze through midweek due to evaporational cooling in the drier, high elevation air. Warmer air arrives towards the end of the week likely signaling weaker refreezes, if at all.

The culprit is the return of the big, blocking ridge over the eastern Pacific. This time it’s positioning itself in a prime spot to deflect any moisture and cooler weather north into the PacNW.

The low responsible for cooler, NE flow at the end of last week will eject off to the east via Mexico by the middle of the week, taking any northerly flow along with it.

As a result, temps will warm to well above average yet again, as noted by 2m temp anomalies from 3/8-3/15.

With a flimsy existing snowpack and higher spring sun angles, this renewed bout of well-above average temps will quickly degrade the Tahoe backcountry snowpack. Higher elevation zones above 8500′ on cooler, more-protected aspects will fair be better, but there’s really no escaping the melt, especially when temps don’t recover below freezing each night. Even if cold and stormy weather returns for the latter half of March, snow will likely fall on bare ground in all but the highest elevation zones, as most of the existing base will have melted off.

Now’s the time to harvest whatever spring turns are out there. There will be more today than tomorrow. Carpe diem.

Backcountry obs.:

Colder overnight lows have finally returned offering solid overnight refreezes to the snowpack and a slowing of last week’s dramatic melt. Last weekend’s disturbance brought in a cooler, more seasonable air mass and spritzes of new snow across the backcountry.

A tour through the Rose backcountry between 8650′-9700′ at dawn on Mon (3/2) revealed a solidly refrozen and supportable surface, comprised of inches-thick rain/melt freeze crust. Runnels from the recent rains still exist but have mellowed, making for smoother skiing. The Sun (3/1) system that brought rain to lower elevations, dropped a trace to .5″ of snow across the Rose backcountry. Treed lee areas retained the most new snow, while ridges and open bowls had been scoured down to bare crusts. Even the deepest pockets of dust offered little more than a dampening of the fast, scratchy chatter made with each turn. Ski crampons and whippets recommended.

Now that the Sierra seems to have definitively shifted out of powder season, the corn chase is on. Enough cold air has finally returned to refreeze the surface each night, while sunny skies and above freezing temps each afternoon are surely softening the surface into buttery corn.

Worth noting is that below 7500′, the snowpack is quickly retreating, especially on solar aspects. There’s not much ski season left.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Spring-like weather is here as noted by the arrival of warm sunny days interspersed with quick-hitting cool disturbances. Today (3/3) will be sunny and warm with high temps reaching the low-mid 40s in the backcountry with lows cooling back to the upper 20s. Tomorrow (3/4) a relatively weak and moisture-starved shortwave trough drops in from the PacNW. Winds and clouds will increase, along with the chances for snow showers, especially over higher terrain. Late week and into the weekend, dry conditions return with near to above normal temps, continuing on into the second week of March.

As noted above, tomorrow’s quick hitting system splits off from a trough of low pressure in the PNW, then drops down across the Sierra and Western Great Basin on Weds and early Thurs (3/5 – 3/6). Due to its trajectory in from the NW, the system will be cooler with snow levels around lake level. However, despite middling lifting dynamics and a cooler source region, the system is unlikely to create much impactful precip with total snow amounts between 1-4″ with the highest amounts along the Sierra Crest.

Atmospheric lifting dynamics, as noted by vorticity and 500mb heights through early Fri AM (3/6), do show sufficient lift and instability to create modest rain and snow, especially with the added influence of springtime surface warming on Weds afternoon.

But despite the dynamics, models for the same period consistently show the system starved for moisture, as noted by meager precipitable water anomalies:

By late Thurs night into Fri (3/5-3/6) total liquid precip. amounts look very light, with only up to .5″ falling near the Sierra Crest.

Behind the system, cool N and NE flow will keep temps down near seasonal levels Thurs – Sat (3/5 – 3/7) with highs above 7000′ in the 30s and 40s. Moderate N and NE winds will also chill the peaks through Sat AM before slackening over the weekend.

Sun (3/8) into next week, warmth will slowly rebuild as a long wave ridge of high pressure rebuilds over the East Pacific, also blocking any potential storms from rescuing the quickly receding snowpack.

Apart from this week, it’s time to shift the backcountry mindset from pow to corn.

Backcountry obs.:

The backcountry snow pack has taken a big hit over the past week. Warm air more reminiscent of May, replaced the seasonably cold conditions earlier in the week, bringing rain as high as 11,000′ on Tues and Weds (2/24-2/25). Gone is the powder and refreshed snow pack from mid Feb replaced by soggy, saturated mush at the lowest elevations, and poorly refrozen rain/melt freeze crust above 8000′.

I toured in the Mt. Rose backcountry between 8650-9900′ at dawn on 2/27 and found a snow pack still greater in volume than pre-storm, but not by much. Rain and above freezing temps melted and compressed the snow pack over the past week. Luckily, efficient overnight cooling had refrozen the snow surface in most areas above 9000′, creating a supportable, 1″+ thick melt-freeze crust, making skinning and skiing quick and efficient. Runnels, beautifully smooth and curved, riddled the entire snow surface, even up to 9900′, evidence of liquid water percolating down through the snow, compressing and pulling its weight onto the topography below.

Skiing on the smooth, runneled surface crust was still fun and fast, scrapey and loud. East Coast-trained skiers will excel on these surfaces. In steeper, more consequential terrain, whippets are necessary to prevent an uncontrollable slide in the event of a blown edge. By mid-morning – early afternoon, soft, buttery corn is likely on offer courtesy of solar surface softening, but only in open areas receiving sufficient overnight refreezes. Forested and lower elevation zones not benefiting from overnight refreezes are soft, rotten, and unsupportable, especially after mid-morning.

And just like that, it’s feels like late spring in the backcountry.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Anomalously warm, moist air will continue to be a feature of the backcountry over the weekend and early work week (2/28-3/3). The ridge of high pressure left in the wake of last week’s AR responsible for continued warmth, will flatten over the course of the weekend as a cut off low approaches CA from the Eastern Pacific. The low will bring more clouds, muggy air, and the chance of afternoon rain/snow showers–and even the chance of a few rumbles of thunder–to the backcountry.

Highs this weekend will be in the low 50s on Sat (2/28) above 7000′ under a mix of clouds and sun, cooling to the 40s on Sun (3/1) with mainly overcast skies. Lows each night will cool into the mid to low 30s. Refreezes will be weak at best, but improving each day especially over higher terrain. Chances for scattered showers increase each afternoon through Mon (3/2), but rain/snow accumulations will likely be generally light and localized.

Snow levels this weekend will start near and above 9000′, before falling to around 6500′ by Mon morning as the low begins to depart the region and chances for precip fall.

There are modest lifting dynamics with the weekend system which will likely ignite a few showers, especially in the afternoon with the added energy of late winter solar heating.

Despite the dynamics and afternoon instability, total available moisture looks to wane through the weekend, just as the best dynamics arrive late on Sun.

The result will be light and spotty precip with most areas receiving less than .10″ rain or a few inches of snow, at most.

Once this weekend’s system moves out, high pressure returns bringing sunny skies and mild temps through midweek.

There’s some indication of another weaker frontal passage around mid week that would further cool temps and bring back chances of rain and snow above 7000-8000’. Total amounts look light (a few inches at best). Models still disagree significantly, keeping forecaster confidence low.

Longer term models show signs of another modest system reaching the Sierra by next weekend, followed by cooler temps closer to seasonal averages.

Despite the unsettled pattern, what doesn’t appear into the first days of March are signs of prolonged cold and storminess: a full blown return to winter. It might not be official on the calendar, but springtime weather is here way ahead of schedule.